Pogarsky, Greg, and Alex R. Piquero: The Resetting Effect

Gregory M. Zimmerman

Individual or specific deterrence rests on the assumption that punished individuals will refrain from engaging in subsequent criminal behavior out of fear or the upward revision of sanction threat perceptions. However, a number of studies have found that individuals may actually be more likely to lower their perceptions of detection and apprehension and therefore continue to offend following punishment. Two competing explanations emerge for this “positive punishment effect.” Under one explanation, individuals with the lowest expectations for punishment are also the most committed offenders who have increased exposure to and experiences with punishment. Greg Pogarsky and Alex R. Piquero provide an alternative explanation—which they call resetting —that draws on a judgment and decision-making bias called the gambler's fallacy. Under resetting, offenders decrease or “reset” their perceptions of apprehension following punishment, believing they would have to be extremely unlucky to be apprehended again (p. 96). Resetting provides a causal explanation for ...

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